Профессионалы фондового рынка не до конца понимают, что именно стало драйвером роста цен на золото.
Китай▪️"It is clear that despite the West's disaffection for gold […] demand in China is more than offsetting the shortfall, with monumental volumes flowing from West to the East."
▪️A significant part of the answer is of course Chinese buying and not just the traditional 'dama' or Chinese grandmothers - Gen Z investors have joined the fray.
▪️Strong Lunar New Year saw Chinese consumers buying gold as a hedge against the country’s beleaguered stock markets and real estate sector.
BUT Chinese premiums are slipping (down from a strong $45 premium to $38) as have Indian premiums (down from $5 discount to a $16 discount) suggesting Asia is behaving in a moderately price-elastic manner and easing back on purchases in the face of price strength.
Ожидаемое понижение ставок ФРС▪️“Сonventional explanation” is that gold is rallying ahead of an expected rate cut at the June Fed meeting, which would weaken the dollar and strengthen gold, making the non-yielding asset relatively more attractive.
BUT "the dollar is actually up YTD and silver is not validating the move higher in the complex as evidenced by a decline in the gold/silver ratio as we would have expected.”
Снижение казначейских ставок в США▪️U.S. treasury yields down 1.2% in the last month and with gold up nearly 6%,
BUT again no evidence that institutions are behind this as ETF demand remains lacklustre.
Закрытие коротких позиций по фьючерсам▪️There’s no doubt that short covering in the futures market has helped boost the rally,
BUT the move is too big for that to be the main driver.
Покупки со стороны центробанков▪️With the US moving beyond simple sanctions and threatening to sequester $300 billion in Russian financial assets... some Central Banks...might prudently wish to diversify into non-dollar assets.
Покупки со стороны макро-хеджфондов и "импульсный" трейдинг▪️Macro funds and momentum buying by commodity trading advisors contributed to gold’s sudden gains, with the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showing hedge funds and money managers increasing their net bullish gold bets as of Feb. 27.
▪️In a sign of higher investor activity, the number of outstanding gold futures contracts on Comex has jumped 30 per cent since February 28, while net long positions rose about 64,000 to 208,000 contracts last Tuesday, according to CFTC data.
BUT these investors added short positions roughly in line with new longs, meaning they’re not all in on gold’s upward move either.
ETF-фонды▪️Gold’s rally has highlighted the growing disconnect between spot prices and gold-backed ETF outflows.
▪️The nominal high has come despite outflows from gold-backed exchange traded funds of 21mn ounces in the past year, according to Bloomberg.
▪️Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, fell by 0.3 per cent on March 4, taking the total to the lowest level since July 2019, according to Bloomberg.
▪️Those outflows have partly been offset by persistent central bank demand for the precious metal, which helped keep prices elevated even as real interest rates spiked last year. Physical demand for gold bars and coins also absorbed the gold that was sold by ETFs.
Макро▪️The rally is being driven by a combination of rate cut expectations and geopolitical turmoil. Speculation over a Fed rates pivot and continued geopolitical tensions keep gold shining.
▪️The current rally kicked off when US manufacturing data at the beginning of the month showed a larger than expected contraction, strengthening investors’ conviction that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in June.
Источник:
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-06/golds-shock-rally-has-analysts-grasping-explanationshttps://www.ft.com/content/96b621f7-90d6-457e-898a-1c04e2902ceb@gold_headlines
