Model Validation Protocols for Machine Learning in Small Molecule Drug Discovery 🔥
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.19.745868v1
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.19.745868v1
Building on the collective expertise of a cross-industry consortium, we present a model validation framework consisting of five recommendations that would enable the community to move beyond aggregate metrics toward understanding where and why molecular property prediction models fail.
We connect evaluation choices to real-world applications and case studies encountered in pharmaceutical research. The framework proposes splitting strategies that mimic realistic distribution shifts and expose common failure modes. We apply the recommended framework to a recently released dataset of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) properties.