Reactions in Iraqi Kurdistan to US troop withdrawal
🟢On September 30, the US officially withdrew its last military contingent from Iraqi Kurdistan (IK), marking the end of the international coalition’s mission to combat ISIS that was launched in August 2014. The decision to withdraw troops has heightened tensions and caused apprehension among the Kurds since it was first discussed, due to its possible negative consequences for IK’s military and political security.
🟢Concerns in Erbil center on the prospects for relations with Baghdad, given that several issues between the two sides remain unresolved. Officials in the IK capital fear that the withdrawal of US troops could make efforts to resolve bilateral disputes less favorable to the regional government.
🟢IK Prime Minister Masrour Barzani warned that the departure of coalition forces would leave the region without essential military protection. He noted that US air defense systems stationed in Kurdistan had been capable of intercepting Iranian strikes against Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. Against this backdrop, IK risks becoming more vulnerable both militarily and politically.
🟢Former head of the IK Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee Ribwar Babki called the prime minister’s concerns “well-founded.” He argued that Baghdad is incapable of ensuring Kurdistan's security, particularly in air defense. Babki also warned that the withdrawal of coalition forces from Iraq could expand the military and political influence of the Popular Mobilization Forces, potentially giving them greater leverage over government bodies and decision-making centers, especially if the federal government fails to disarm these groups.
🟢The Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs stated that this instability threatens regional and Iraqi security, noting that the withdrawal of the US contingent will not be accompanied by the creation of an alternative air defense system. In this context, Kurdish military officials maintain that Baghdad should be responsible for IK's security, as the federal capital is viewed as the key guarantor of security, including protection against air threats.
🟢Some Iraqi security officials fear that the withdrawal of US troops could give ISIS an opportunity to resurge. In their view, militants continue to maintain a network of sleeper cells, having shifted to guerrilla warfare tactics and small-scale raids. Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani warned that the withdrawal of US troops could mirror the scenario of 2011. Meanwhile, for IK President Nechirvan Barzani, the main issue remains the ability of the Kurdish leadership to fill the security vacuum and effectively confront regional challenges on its own.
🟢Former secretary-general of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs Jabar Yawar argued that the main risk to regional stability is the lack of consensus between IK’s main political parties — the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the KDP. He noted that to counter external threats and strengthen their position in negotiations with Baghdad, the Kurds need to reach an agreement, which should be reflected, at a minimum, in the formation of the regional parliament.
🟢Conversely, Adham Barzani, Masoud Barzani’s cousin, welcomed the withdrawal of coalition forces, describing the period of US presence in Iraq as an “occupation.”
🟢Kurdish experts argue that Erbil and Sulaymaniyah have relied excessively on an external power to preserve a unity that they themselves have been unable to maintain. After September 30, IK will lose a deterrent force capable of responding quickly to shifts in intra-Kurdish relations, which could lead to a deepening rift between the parties.
🟢IK Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani spoke positively about the withdrawal of coalition forces, arguing that Iraqi Kurds need to address all security issues themselves in close coordination with Baghdad. He emphasized the responsibility of the Peshmerga and Iraqi Armed Forces to ensure citizens' security. In an interview with the Iraqi News Agency, the deputy prime minister said that the Kurds “must prove to the Iraqi people and the international community that they are capable of protecting the country’s sovereignty, security, and stability.”
🟢The divergent sentiments in IK’s two political centers reflect the extent of cooperation and personal ties that Kurdish elites have developed with the Americans over the past two decades. However, it is premature to speak of a complete US withdrawal, as the new model of bilateral security cooperation is expected to shift from joint field operations and direct military involvement to intelligence sharing and officer training.
#CSAI #MENA
@csaiiosras
🟢On September 30, the US officially withdrew its last military contingent from Iraqi Kurdistan (IK), marking the end of the international coalition’s mission to combat ISIS that was launched in August 2014. The decision to withdraw troops has heightened tensions and caused apprehension among the Kurds since it was first discussed, due to its possible negative consequences for IK’s military and political security.
🟢Concerns in Erbil center on the prospects for relations with Baghdad, given that several issues between the two sides remain unresolved. Officials in the IK capital fear that the withdrawal of US troops could make efforts to resolve bilateral disputes less favorable to the regional government.
🟢IK Prime Minister Masrour Barzani warned that the departure of coalition forces would leave the region without essential military protection. He noted that US air defense systems stationed in Kurdistan had been capable of intercepting Iranian strikes against Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. Against this backdrop, IK risks becoming more vulnerable both militarily and politically.
🟢Former head of the IK Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee Ribwar Babki called the prime minister’s concerns “well-founded.” He argued that Baghdad is incapable of ensuring Kurdistan's security, particularly in air defense. Babki also warned that the withdrawal of coalition forces from Iraq could expand the military and political influence of the Popular Mobilization Forces, potentially giving them greater leverage over government bodies and decision-making centers, especially if the federal government fails to disarm these groups.
🟢The Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs stated that this instability threatens regional and Iraqi security, noting that the withdrawal of the US contingent will not be accompanied by the creation of an alternative air defense system. In this context, Kurdish military officials maintain that Baghdad should be responsible for IK's security, as the federal capital is viewed as the key guarantor of security, including protection against air threats.
🟢Some Iraqi security officials fear that the withdrawal of US troops could give ISIS an opportunity to resurge. In their view, militants continue to maintain a network of sleeper cells, having shifted to guerrilla warfare tactics and small-scale raids. Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani warned that the withdrawal of US troops could mirror the scenario of 2011. Meanwhile, for IK President Nechirvan Barzani, the main issue remains the ability of the Kurdish leadership to fill the security vacuum and effectively confront regional challenges on its own.
🟢Former secretary-general of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs Jabar Yawar argued that the main risk to regional stability is the lack of consensus between IK’s main political parties — the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the KDP. He noted that to counter external threats and strengthen their position in negotiations with Baghdad, the Kurds need to reach an agreement, which should be reflected, at a minimum, in the formation of the regional parliament.
🟢Conversely, Adham Barzani, Masoud Barzani’s cousin, welcomed the withdrawal of coalition forces, describing the period of US presence in Iraq as an “occupation.”
🟢Kurdish experts argue that Erbil and Sulaymaniyah have relied excessively on an external power to preserve a unity that they themselves have been unable to maintain. After September 30, IK will lose a deterrent force capable of responding quickly to shifts in intra-Kurdish relations, which could lead to a deepening rift between the parties.
🟢IK Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani spoke positively about the withdrawal of coalition forces, arguing that Iraqi Kurds need to address all security issues themselves in close coordination with Baghdad. He emphasized the responsibility of the Peshmerga and Iraqi Armed Forces to ensure citizens' security. In an interview with the Iraqi News Agency, the deputy prime minister said that the Kurds “must prove to the Iraqi people and the international community that they are capable of protecting the country’s sovereignty, security, and stability.”
🟢The divergent sentiments in IK’s two political centers reflect the extent of cooperation and personal ties that Kurdish elites have developed with the Americans over the past two decades. However, it is premature to speak of a complete US withdrawal, as the new model of bilateral security cooperation is expected to shift from joint field operations and direct military involvement to intelligence sharing and officer training.
#CSAI #MENA
@csaiiosras