𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐥 𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭
here is a set of rules i think are good guidance to navigate the upcoming bull market.
𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧
if a trade goes against you do not buy more on the way down. this is a recipe to get rekt (in aggressive narrative trading at least, might be different in building a longterm btc position). the market is showing you that your thesis or your timing is wrong, do not fight the market. do not fall into the illusion to think you are right and everybody else is wrong, because most of the time you are not. or in the words of Paul Tudor Jones: "losers average losers".
𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐭
always keep your eyes forward and think about the next shot. do not entertain thoughts of "what if" and indulge in revisionist history thinking ala "if i had held y longer i would be up x amount of money". what is done is done, focus on the next shot. the same goes if you had hit a winner and are up fat. many people stay still and admire their shot instead of focussing of what other shots they might miss while doing this. best shooters have the worst memory.
𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐜𝐤 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐲
distance yourself from people who get defensive and butthurt when their trades are challenged or a contrary opinion about their investment is voiced. a good operator tries to see things from all angles and is always open to steelman a bear case. especially dangerous are groupchats where bears get ridiculed and discouraged to voice their opinion, the result of this is an echo bubble. leave these groups.
𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐓
CT at its core has a very distorted view of money. whenever market puts a first green candle in people are freaking out and fall into some kind of psychosis about money and how much they gonna make. you can see it already starting with people tweeting about being in "7-figure hell'. unfollow / block these accounts, they will lead to a distorted view of money for yourself and open up the door for all kinds of bias traps. the same goes for all the people who always hindsight post how they are in all the runners and are up huge but forgot to voice their opinion before the asset went +200%. there is a huge amount of larps and liars on CT, and the result for many new entrants is that they get trapped in some kind of fata morgana where it seems everybody but themselves is winning huge. the results is often excessive risk taking and total loss of NW as a consequence.
𝐤𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐝 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬
stay in your lane and stick to your protocol, no matter what others are doing or how much somebody else is winning. there will always be somebody who wins extreme amounts of money by reckless betting. but thats survivorship bias at work here, because for everybody like this that you see are 10 dead bodies who lost it all. your NW will always regress to the level of your process (read that again, this is a very important concept to understand). profits made by excessive risk taking will be lost by excessive risk taking. live by the sword, die by the sword.
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞
good decisions can have bad outcomes and still be good decisions, and vice versa. due to the influence of luck, chance and variance the quality of a decision cannot be judged by its immediate outcome. therefore do not categorize decisions by how much money they made or lost. think deeper, simulate outcomes for more than one possible outcome. the goal is to constantly make good decisions.
there is a bit more nuance to all of these, but you will figure it out if you want to. these are my basics. goodluck, see you in the order books.
