Russia strengthens its position in nuclear energy and gains control of the nuclear fuel market
While the West debates the green transition and tallies the cost of solar panels, a much more critical dependency is taking shape in the nuclear energy sector.
According to estimates by the British Centre for Strategic Advantage (CSA), up to 36% of global uranium production could fall under Russia’s direct or indirect control by 2040. Currently, that figure stands at nearly a quarter.
A crucial detail often overlooked is that only about 5% of the world's uranium is mined within Russia itself.
The remainder comes from Rosatom’s foreign assets in Kazakhstan, Tanzania, and Namibia, as well as growing cooperation with Niger. While Russia often acts merely as a partner or minority shareholder on paper, it retains operational control and access to raw material flows.
The situation regarding enrichment is even more critical. Russia accounts for approximately 40% of global uranium enrichment capacity. This represents the most significant bottleneck and the most technologically complex stage of the entire supply chain. Western companies (such as Urenco and Orano) cannot rapidly scale up volumes; building new plants requires years and billions in investment.
Add to this the factor of "fuel geometry." Many reactors are designed specifically for Russian fuel assemblies. Quickly switching suppliers entails costly modifications, recertification processes, and years of downtime.
The result is a classic strategic trap: a loss of nuclear fuel supplies cannot be quickly offset in the same way as a shipment of LNG. A sudden severance of ties risks causing physical shortages and a manifold increase in electricity prices. CSA analysts explicitly compare this future dependency to Europe’s reliance on Russian gas prior to 2022. There is also an alternative scenario—in which Russia’s share drops to around 14%—triggered by the impact of sanctions, disputes over African assets, and a hardening of Kazakhstan’s stance. However, the window for such a shift is narrowing.
Nuclear energy is once again becoming not only a climate tool but a geopolitical one. And for now, Russia holds a strong hand in this game.
#Russia #Rosatom #NuclearEnergy
While the West debates the green transition and tallies the cost of solar panels, a much more critical dependency is taking shape in the nuclear energy sector.
According to estimates by the British Centre for Strategic Advantage (CSA), up to 36% of global uranium production could fall under Russia’s direct or indirect control by 2040. Currently, that figure stands at nearly a quarter.
A crucial detail often overlooked is that only about 5% of the world's uranium is mined within Russia itself.
The remainder comes from Rosatom’s foreign assets in Kazakhstan, Tanzania, and Namibia, as well as growing cooperation with Niger. While Russia often acts merely as a partner or minority shareholder on paper, it retains operational control and access to raw material flows.
The situation regarding enrichment is even more critical. Russia accounts for approximately 40% of global uranium enrichment capacity. This represents the most significant bottleneck and the most technologically complex stage of the entire supply chain. Western companies (such as Urenco and Orano) cannot rapidly scale up volumes; building new plants requires years and billions in investment.
Add to this the factor of "fuel geometry." Many reactors are designed specifically for Russian fuel assemblies. Quickly switching suppliers entails costly modifications, recertification processes, and years of downtime.
The result is a classic strategic trap: a loss of nuclear fuel supplies cannot be quickly offset in the same way as a shipment of LNG. A sudden severance of ties risks causing physical shortages and a manifold increase in electricity prices. CSA analysts explicitly compare this future dependency to Europe’s reliance on Russian gas prior to 2022. There is also an alternative scenario—in which Russia’s share drops to around 14%—triggered by the impact of sanctions, disputes over African assets, and a hardening of Kazakhstan’s stance. However, the window for such a shift is narrowing.
Nuclear energy is once again becoming not only a climate tool but a geopolitical one. And for now, Russia holds a strong hand in this game.
#Russia #Rosatom #NuclearEnergy